[SMM Analysis] Positive News Drives SS Futures Higher, Market Confidence Strengthens, and Stainless Steel Inventory Drawdown Accelerates

SMM reported on December 25 that during the week (December 18-25, 2025), the total stainless steel inventory in the Wuxi and Foshan markets showed a pullback trend, decreasing from 926,700 mt on December 18, 2025 to 892,400 mt on December 25, down 3.7% WoW.

This week, the social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, with the rate of decrease widening. Influenced by news that Indonesian nickel ore approvals may tighten, SHFE nickel and SS futures strengthened significantly, boosting market confidence and driving up the stainless steel spot market. Despite year-end demand being in the off-season, downstream acceptance of high-priced supplies under short-term news stimulus was low. However, in the rising market, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality improved market sentiment, and some low-priced goods saw moderate transaction performance after traders offered discounts. Additionally, to avoid export license management, the recent export rush demand remained robust, with enterprises accelerating cargo pick-up, providing momentum for the destocking of stainless steel social inventory. However, the recent strength in the stainless steel market was mainly driven by strong news factors, and a pullback has already emerged. Further attention is needed on the implementation of relevant policies and the actual performance of downstream stockpiling purchase demand at year-end.